MyDD :: CNN : Obama up 7

CNN : Obama up 7

by pollbuster, Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 06:41:53 PM EST

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/latestpolls/index.html

CNN has just released a poll showing Obama with a 51-44 lead. This is huge because Obama has now broken the 50% mark. It also comes on the heels of a Gallup poll which had given McCain a 4 point advantage. Many observers believed the Gallup poll was unreliable because it utilized a flawed likely voter model. In any event this new CNN poll seems a lot more in line with almost all the other national polls that have come out in the past 2 months.

Tags: CNN, Obama, Gallup (all tags)

Permalink :: 18 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: New CNN Poll: Obama up 7 (2.00 / 2)

I love maps of the United State of America

http://www.pollster.com/

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 06:46:04 PM EST

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (2.00 / 1)

I love that map too.

The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman

by pollbuster on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 06:48:17 PM EST

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (2.00 / 2)

I'll have a few beer this evening, thanks in no small measure to this poll.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 06:58:40 PM EST

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (2.00 / 2)

Saw this poll earlier so I've already had mine :)

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

by jsfox on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 07:05:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (none / 0)

I am not officially drinking!

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 09:02:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (2.00 / 2)

<ahem>

I am NOW officially drinking

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 09:02:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (2.00 / 3)

Good News, Good News. If it had been one or two pionts, I might start worrying.

by NewOaklandDem on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 07:13:20 PM EST

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (none / 0)

Although he breaks 50% isn't his lead exactly the same as when the poll was last taken? CNN are headlining the story "No bounce for Obama." It's good news that there's no slippage but not exactly a cause for euphoria.

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 07:21:54 PM EST

A black Democrat (2.00 / 4)

is up seven over a Republican war hero in America...let's not push it.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 07:31:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A black Democrat (none / 0)

Except in the context of Dem generic numbers, Bush approval, right way wrong way, et al. It's good he's ahead but in strictly polling terms CNN is not far wrong. He hasn't seen the bounce that I for one expected even if you didn't. Although I'm sure you did.

by ottovbvs on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 07:39:58 PM EST
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No (2.00 / 1)

I expected no bounce...I'm still shocked he's ahead at all. It is no surprise to me that despite generic numbers and Bush's approval rating, he's only ahead by seven. I know plenty of people who hate Bush and think the country is moving in the wrong direction and decided on McCain over any Democrat early on. These polls numbers are not going to move much between now and November unless something blows the top off the race. With the trends, I'd say it'll end with a 3-5 point Obama victory...though personally, I'm not even keeping my hopes up for that.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 08:35:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (none / 0)

I think his previous lead with this poll was 5, so it's up 2. therefore within the margin of error.

The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman

by pollbuster on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 07:47:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (2.00 / 3)

Never lose faith in reasoning, most people are paying attention to the race and they understand what is relative political discourse or flat out dirty politics.

McCain is scratching his head on what to do next.

by hocuspocus on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 07:23:39 PM EST

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (2.00 / 1)

He went after Obama with the negative campaign tactics very, very early. Before the Olympics!!!! Obama's newest spot is perfect and demonstrates exactly how easily he can deflect such nonsense. That took less than a day and deflates a narrative they've been building for two weeks (an eternity in campaign days). They'll keep repeating it and he'll keep moving forward, pausing only to remind them that he's not going to stop.

Seriously, you're totally right, though. If the negative campaign tactics don't take hold fast and hard, McCain is screwed. They have to be in the lead come November because of Obama's ground game, which is an immeasurable strategy.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 07:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (none / 0)

We all know that July polls accurately predict November winners!

Time to celebrate!

by reggie44pride on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 07:59:58 PM EST

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (2.00 / 1)

No, but when you're up in July it helps bring more money into the campaign, as well as greater enthusiasm--so what's your problem.

The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman

by pollbuster on Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 08:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CNN : Obama up 7 (2.00 / 1)

Would you prefer that we be losing the July polls?