MyDD :: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip

Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip

by Blazers Edge, Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 04:52:55 PM EST

According to Ambinder (who has staked his credibility with Sebelius and Pawlenty as the veep candidates), sources from Warner's inner circle are leaking that some in Obama's camp, not necessarily Obama himself, attempted to get Warner to flip from his earlier Shermanasque pronouncement about the VP spot. Unfortunately for us Warner groupies (myself, Jerome, and lori), Warner decided against flipping. Obama/Warner would have been an amazing team; that crap about VPs unable to swing states doesn't apply to a guy viewed as a savior in Virginia. Kaine was able to ride his coattails from four years earlier to win the governorship. The Obama/Warner team would have put McCain in a fetal position, forcing him to win Michigan to take the presidency as McCain is already underperforming dramatically in Virginia.

I too believe that Warner will be president one day, either in 2012 or 2016. I'm not sure if he made the right call here; Warner may have thought that he didn't want to risk a 99% chance of winning a Senate Seat for a 65% chance of becoming the veep. However, I believe Obama's chances would have improved dramatically with Warner at his side formally as veep.

I wouldn't be feeling too comfortable about my veep chances if I were Evan Bayh. That Obama was allegedly trying to get Warner to flip suggests to me that he has some reservations about Bayh, supporting my theory that something in Obama's gut prevented from him pulling the trigger on Bayh last week, which I believe would have been the perfect time to do it as Bayh would have received the spotlight this week with Obama on vacation.

This movement against Bayh as veep is pretty surprising; you cannot blame it on the Clintonite types either as the true-believers such as Stoller and Bowers over at Openleft are the ones pushing it. I wonder if Obama is trying to get someone else such Al Gore to possibly flip from an earlier Shermanesque statement.

Tags: Warner, Obama, veep (all tags)

Permalink :: 37 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

Anyone paying attention would have wanted to try to talk Warner out of it.

I thought there must have been something in his past that kept him from entering the presidential race himself when he stepped out.

Could be why is being Shermanesque about the VP?

I am going to echo other comments here, it's pretty ironic about Bayh from the Clinton camp, I heard him mentioned a lot from her side as a good match for Hillary as VP when she was inevitable, now they all seem to dispise him.

Me, I would have loved Warner ALMOST as much as Wes, still my first choice.

On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....

by WashStateBlue on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 04:57:38 PM EST

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (2.00 / 1)

I rather like Gov. Warner. I was shocked at his early dropout. I thought at the time it was because he didn't want to go up against Hillary. That might well have been true, but it's also possible he doesn't want to be fully vetted.

He might even have meant what he said about spending time with his family. It's not impossible. It's just incredibly unlikely that's the proximate cause.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:00:11 PM EST

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

Despite Jerome's Naivette about Warner in 2008, he would have been destroyed in the Primary's in the Obama and Clinton battles. He doesn't have Obama's oratory skills nor Clinton's experience and doesn't have the high profile either of them had. He would have been second tier, lost in Iowa and NH and it would have hurt his career, given he is simply a 1 term governor. THE ONLY way he would have had a chance is if Obama hadn't run, but in that case, I would bet money Clinton would have beaten him. By running for the Senate, he is much better positioned to run. In the very slim chance Obama loses, I doubt he would win in 2012... That will be all Clinton. However, 2016 after starting his second term, he would be a strong candidate or a VP candidate in 2016 to an older candidate such as Clinton, Gore, etc if either ran in 2016 and beat Warner.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 10:28:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (2.00 / 1)

If he tried to get Warner that means he is really looking hard at VA which makes the case for Bayh stronger .

It means he is looking at it with a mix of political calculation and message.

Bayh might be able to bring him Indiana and still maintain the change message.

He is definitely trying to flip VA or IN .

It is between Bayh and Kaine in my view , but foreign policy and national security makes Bayh more likely.

Warner was actually my choice prior to him dropping out and then I moved to Clinton , even with that , months into the campaign I was still wondering why he dropped out.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:20:37 PM EST

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

But if he tried to get Warner to flip, that could mean he decided Tim Kaine might be a weak choice.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:30:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

Kaine is a pretty good guy, but frankly he's worth about 2/5 of what Warner is, electorally speaking.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:33:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

You are right.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:35:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

Possibly .

I think he is as well , although I admire but not for VP.

I don't see Obama picking him .

Besides I think VA would eventually stay red .

Why not pick Bayh who can help in IND and OHIO .

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:34:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

I think OBama has a very good chance of winning VA, better even than IN.

by wasder on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:38:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (2.00 / 1)

Both states are going to be a tough fight to flip but if he is not going to get Warner as a VP which might push him up 1 or 2 points , I don't see the advantage of picking Kaine .

I don't think Kaine can help him flip VA against Mccain , a lot of the independents in VA are former republicans i.e. moderate republicans and if any republican is going to attract those votes it would be Mccain .

So if Warner isn't going to be on the ticket , if he is thinking electorally he should go with Bayh , who is more like Warner in VA in terms of electoral value.

Both states are tough , but Bayh gives Obama as much chance in Indiana , as Warner gives Obama in VA .

I actually think Obama stands and equal chance to win IN or VA .

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:57:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Indiana (none / 0)

isn't going to flip before Virginia.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:43:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (2.00 / 1)

The only problem is Bayh's inclusion on so many pro-war committees. It would really make things problematic from a media perspective, because Bayh would be seen as a pander and a really "safe" choice.

He's impressed me lately in media appearances, and his popularity would indeed probably help flip Indiana and/or Ohio. But it's possible it could hurt him with independents if they buy the spin that will inevitably follow.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:44:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

Prove Bayh can help you win Ohio... The guy is a douche with the personality of dried wood. He is nepotism gone wrong. He is a terrible speaker. He is good for a few points in Indiana, which might win it for Obama given the proximity of the state to Illinois but he does NOTHING in Ohio.... The big Border areas such as Cincy will probably go McCain... Bayh isn't converting anyone in those areas.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 10:32:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

We absofuckingluty need 60 real Democratic Senators...

We need Senator Warner more than we need VP Warner..
Don't forget..it is that bullshit 60-40 Senate thing that empowers the GOP.

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:39:20 PM EST

In the unlikely event (none / 0)

Obama loses, even with Warner, we'd need his vote in the Senate.

This is strategically easier. Obama doesn't NEED Warner, so let him ride into the Senate.

Perhaps the keynote will be a good chance to show the guy off, help him build a landslide a lot like Obama's in Illinois in 2004 and help Obama flip the state anyway. Rasmussen has it tied.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 05:42:34 PM EST

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

I have no trouble believing it, he would clearly be a strong pick. That said, I still haven't quite figured out why some of you guys are such huge Warner fans, I guess he has a je ne sais quoi.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 06:41:12 PM EST

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

Demonstrable competence.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 06:47:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

Charisma you could run with for days, great business experience, smart, polished.

Got elected in a fairly red state, with some very blue stances.

I think, he is believable, and that is why he pulled it off without giving up his beliefs.

On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....

by WashStateBlue on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 06:51:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My admiration of Warner (none / 0)

is a little weird, since he is a little to my right. One thing though stands out is he made it acceptable in the minds of a very conservative electorate to raise taxes (I'm a big "raise taxes on the wealthy guy," which has helped make the transition from HRC to Obama easier). Warner pretty much made it possible for Obama to even have any chance of winning Virginia. Think about prior to Warner, even Big Dog couldn't take the state in 92 and 96.

Out of all the possible tickets we could have run, I'd rate Obama/Warner #2.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 06:55:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

They like moderates.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 10:33:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

In some cases!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 11:09:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Clark love from the roots (none / 0)

is a little weirder in my opinion, Steve. Wes is a pure Clinton disciple. If you asked him who got him into politics and who he learned politics from, Wes would probably answer Bill and Hillary. I love Wes as well, though it is surprising how much the roots loves him despite how closely he is tied with the Clintons.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 06:58:28 PM EST

Re: The Clark love from the roots (none / 0)

Well, that's a good point, actually. Maybe the dislike for the Clintons and their politics is more of a personal thing and doesn't get spread to everyone else in their circle. I mean, who doesn't love Al Gore, and surely he has more than his share of Clinton cooties.

On another level, I think a lot of netroots folks love having someone in a uniform validate them and show the world that they're not all anti-military.

Anyway, thanks for the responses. For some reason I've just never really focused on Mark Warner even though he's obviously a big name.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 07:02:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Clark love from the roots (none / 0)

I also think you overestimate the personal animise towards the Clintons?

I love the Clintons, I didn't like the campaign they ran.

Sure, there are crazies at KOS that think Hillary is the worst, plenty of Morans there AND at NoQuarter?

I think we all are still banged and bruised a bit from the primary, but, I have not seen any natural stong dislike of Wes from Obama folks, either because he came up through the Clinton machine nor that he was strongly for Clinton in the primary.

On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....

by WashStateBlue on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 07:07:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Clark love from the roots (none / 0)

I am not generalizing this to everyone. I'm talking about the people who used to write the daily "Hillary is the devil" diaries at dkos, back before this primary even started.

Hillary has always been a villain at dkos, it's just that she wasn't always a racist who hopes for people to be assassinated. But there's always been netroots animosity towards the DLC and what's seen as the Clinton brand of centrism, flag burning and all that.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 07:14:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's the point though WSB (none / 0)

The roots has always been in love with Wes, probably even more so than Obama. I cannot find one mainstream progressive blog that has any beef with Wes. He's probably the most popular dem in the blogosphere.

HRC certainly was significantly popular than Obama in the roots, which I found surprising in light of the love for Wes. Clark seems to practice the same hard-hitting politics as the Clintons as evidenced by his hit on McCain several months (a hit that I actually disagreed with) and yet, he gets lauded for it. Just making an observation.

On another note, it'll be a little funny seeing 47-year old Obama refer to 54-year old Warner as the "future" of the party.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 07:14:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's the point though WSB (none / 0)

should read "significantly less popular" than Obama in the second paragraph.

by Blazers Edge on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 07:15:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Clark love from the roots (none / 0)

Hey you should check Warner out , he is pretty popular around here , especially what he did as Gov . in VA .

I am pretty much in sync with him ideologically thats a main attraction for me.

Plus he is easy to look at , check him out , he makes a great first impression .

Hey talking about Warner , there is a youtube of him speaking at the Yearlykos ( I don't know how he survived in that crowd ) on the frontpage , you should hear him speak , if you can get past the first 3 minutes or so of the guy introducing him ( don't know what the hell he is talking about ) you would get to him.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 07:19:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Clark love from the roots (none / 0)

Haha, can I get my wife's opinion on whether he is "easy to look at"?

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 07:21:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Clark love from the roots (none / 0)

You know I would suggest you don't , she might get worried.

You might be looking at the couch if you did.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 07:31:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Clark love from the roots (none / 0)

For the record, my wife made that "not so easy on the eyes" face.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 09:25:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Clark love from the roots (none / 0)

I would say that the perceived manipulations and machinery by the Clintons, the perception (right or wrong) that they feel they are King and queen of the party... the entitlement pisses people off.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 10:35:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (2.00 / 1)

I'm a little slow as you all know. What is the Shermanesque statement?

by Politicalslave on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 06:58:49 PM EST

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (2.00 / 2)

"If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve." --William Tecumseh Sherman

It means making a statement that says, with absolutely no room for hedging, that you're not running.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 07:04:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

Thank you Steve. I think I knew that?

by Politicalslave on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 07:08:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

I would rather jump off a bridge than run for elected office .

Nothing more shermansque than that lol.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 07:11:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ambinder: Warner was asked to flip (none / 0)

Ok... First of all, Gore was never under consideration for VP, NOR would he want the role. He already has been VP, he is BIGGER than that role right now... speculation on it is annoying as hell so please FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, knock that off. Its as ridiculous as the people who have proposed Bill Clinton as VP.

Second of all, I still would bet money Bayh is not it and will not be it and while shortlisted was never a serious choice. That of course is speculation but the Obama campaign, known for being fairly tight lipped, I just don't see that name being leaked.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 10:22:50 PM EST

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